By Benjamin Senauer and Linda Goetz

This paper argues that the largest global growth opportunity for high-value food products is the emerging middle class in many developing countries. Using data for Lima, Peru, 20 percent of households are classified as middle or upper class based on the prevalence of ownership of major durable goods, such as refrigerators and automobiles. Monthly expenditures by the middle class on more expensive foods, such as fresh fruit and red meat, and especially for high value-added products, such as food away from home, are substantially higher, markedly so in some cases.

By extrapolating from these results for Lima, a minimum per capita gross national income (GNI) of $6,000 is required for an emerging middle class lifestyle. Based on World Bank data for GNI and income distribution, the size of the middle class is estimated for eleven low and middle income countries with large populations or high rates of economic growth. With this cut-off level for GNI, 93 percent of households in the Republic of Korea would be classified as middle class or above, 46 percent in Malaysia and Mexico, 45 percent in Russia, and 35 percent in Brazil. The size of the emerging middle class is estimated to be some 290 million in China, over 90 million in India, and over 57 million in Brazil.

On the other hand, some very populous low-income countries with poor economic performance have developed very small middle classes, such as Nigeria and Pakistan. Economic growth is crucial to the emergence of a sizable middle class.

There are also less sanguine issues concerning the adoption of a high consumption lifestyle by large numbers of the world’s people. The first is the increasing rate of obesity in many developing countries, even while poverty and hunger persist in many. In addition, there are environmental consequences in that most durable goods rely either directly on carbon fuels, such as automobiles, or indirectly via the generation of electricity.

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